San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Diego Padres 64%
Colorado Rockies 36%
Locked before start
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75% Hit Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Showing 3 of 73 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.549 (away 84-69) vs home 56-97 0.366, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
MK Michael King Appearance confirmed
TG Tanner Gordon Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 74°F· wind 2 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 74°F 2 mph, In From LF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)
hits 1/1 Hit
75% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Run line4 San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.549 (away 84-69) vs home 56-97 0.366, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/3 Hit
64% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.366 (home 56-97) vs away 84-69 0.549, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 2/10 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
