San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 2:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 40%
Los Angeles Dodgers 60%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.618 (home 97-60) vs away 87-70 0.554, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
MK Michael King Appearance confirmed
BS Brock Stewart Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 73°F· wind 7 mph, Out To CF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p 73°F 7 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.618 (home 97-60) vs away 87-70 0.554, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 7/1 Hit
60% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.554 (away 87-70) vs home 97-60 0.618, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/8 Miss
40% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals batter77 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
58% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
