San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 2:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 40%
Los Angeles Dodgers 60%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.614 (home 97-61) vs away 88-70 0.557, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
RR Robbie Ray Appearance confirmed
YY Yoshinobu Yamamoto Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 74°F· wind 4 mph, Out To CF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p 74°F 4 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.293 (147PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p) BvP career 3/9 (.333, K 3·HR 0) → weight 4% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line batter77 AP Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
62% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.614 (home 97-61) vs away 88-70 0.557, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 1/6 Miss
60% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.557 (away 88-70) vs home 97-61 0.614, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/2 Hit
40% San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
