San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 2:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 41%
Los Angeles Dodgers 59%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.610 (home 97-62) vs away 89-70 0.560, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
NP Nick Pivetta Appearance confirmed
TG Tyler Glasnow Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 74°F· wind 4 mph, Out To RF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.0%p 74°F 4 mph, Out To RF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.307 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.288, underrated 2p) Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line batter77 FF Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.279, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
60% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.610 (home 97-62) vs away 89-70 0.560, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 2/5 Miss
59% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.560 (away 89-70) vs home 97-62 0.610, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/3 Hit
41% San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
