San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Scheduled MLB
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 12:30 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish San Diego Padres 46%
Milwaukee Brewers 54%
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 9, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Pregame home win ESPN 72% · Spolytics 54% −17.5%p External figure: ESPN Matchup Predictor. Retrieved 2026-10-03T20:07:55.792Z; forecast publication time unavailable. Shown for reference; not an input to our model.
Head to head San Diego Padres Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
RR Robbie Ray Probable · subject to change
JM Jacob Misiorowski Probable · subject to change
Recent form · newest first
park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.314, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) San Diego Padres 9 OUT (Walker Buehler …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.333 (153PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.314, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
65% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 9, matchup combination model
54% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-0) vs home 0-0 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
46% San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
