San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Final MLB
Oct 4 (Sun) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Diego Padres 46%
Milwaukee Brewers 54%
Locked before start
Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line 70% Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win 54% Hit Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 56% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 9, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
MK Michael King Appearance confirmed
LH Logan Henderson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 68°F· wind 11 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 68°F 11 mph, Out To CF Milwaukee Brewers 5 OUT (Brandon Woodruff …) San Diego Padres 9 OUT (Walker Buehler …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.274 (369PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
65% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 9, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
54% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-2) vs home 2-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
46% San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
