San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 11:20 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 59%
San Francisco Giants 41%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.544 (away 81-68) vs home 62-88 0.413, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
NP Nick Pivetta Appearance confirmed
LW Logan Webb Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 68°F· wind 19 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 12/41 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 68°F 19 mph, Out To CF San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 12/41 (.293, K 9·HR 1) → weight 17% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line batter56 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 12/41 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
69% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.544 (away 81-68) vs home 62-88 0.413, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/5 Hit
59% San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.413 (home 62-88) vs away 81-68 0.544, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 4/7 Miss
41% San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
