San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 2:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Francisco Giants 28%
Los Angeles Dodgers 72%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.610 (home 94-60) vs away 64-90 0.416, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
CP Cesar Perdomo Appearance confirmed
TG Tyler Glasnow Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 72°F· wind 6 mph, Out To RF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p 72°F 6 mph, Out To RF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.293 (147PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p) Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
82% Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line batter49 AP Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
72% Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.610 (home 94-60) vs away 64-90 0.416, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 8/3 Hit
72% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.416 (away 64-90) vs home 94-60 0.610, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/9 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
