San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Francisco Giants 27%
Los Angeles Dodgers 73%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.613 (home 95-60) vs away 64-91 0.413, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
YM Yunior Marte Appearance confirmed
TS Tarik Skubal Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 77°F· wind 7 mph, Out To RF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.275 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.286 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.167
-13.0%p Statcast xBA
0.286 (actual 0.275)
+0.5%p 77°F 7 mph, Out To RF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) last 15G AVG 0.167 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.276 (344PA) Statcast xBA 0.286 (actual 0.275, underrated 11p) Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
83% Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.613 (home 95-60) vs away 64-91 0.413, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 10/5 Hit
73% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.413 (away 64-91) vs home 95-60 0.613, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/11 Miss
27% batter49 SO Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.275 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.286 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
67% Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
