San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Francisco Giants 27%
Los Angeles Dodgers 73%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.615 (home 96-60) vs away 64-92 0.410, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching matchup
MW Matt Wilkinson Appearance confirmed
JD Jack Dreyer Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 79°F· wind 5 mph, Out To CF
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.308
+4.1%p 79°F 5 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Dodgers 7 OUT (Blake Treinen …) San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) last 15G AVG 0.308 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.293 (147PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.274, underrated 0p) Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Los Angeles Dodgers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
83% Los Angeles Dodgers home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Dodgers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.615 (home 96-60) vs away 64-92 0.410, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 3/2 Hit
73% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Dodgers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.410 (away 64-92) vs home 96-60 0.615, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/4 Miss
27% batter49 AP Andy Pages Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
67% Shohei Ohtani Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Tucker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andy Pages RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shohei Ohtani Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mookie Betts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shohei Ohtani Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mookie Betts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Tucker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Tucker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Freddie Freeman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andy Pages Hits 2+· hits 2+ Freddie Freeman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shohei Ohtani Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andy Pages Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mookie Betts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mookie Betts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Tucker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Freddie Freeman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shohei Ohtani HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andy Pages HR· HR 1+ Mookie Betts HR· HR 1+ Kyle Tucker HR· HR 1+ Freddie Freeman HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
