San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Francisco Giants 38%
St. Louis Cardinals 62%
Locked before start
Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line 74% Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Showing 3 of 52 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 62-89 0.411, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
LR Landen Roupp Appearance confirmed
QM Quinn Mathews Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 85°F· wind 9 mph, R To L· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line games6 San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs Low
season 4.1runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 3.7 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 1/4 Miss
69% St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 62-89 0.411, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
62% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.411 (away 62-89) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
38% batter49 Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
