San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Francisco Giants 37%
St. Louis Cardinals 63%
Locked before start
Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line 75% Showing 3 of 59 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.493 (home 75-77) vs away 63-89 0.414, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
BT Blade Tidwell Appearance confirmed
AP Andre Pallante Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 90°F· wind 7 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.231
-5.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 90°F 7 mph, Out To LF St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) last 15G AVG 0.231 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.311 (412PA) Statcast xBA 0.289 (actual 0.279, underrated 10p) Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line batter49 AB Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
68% Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.493 (home 75-77) vs away 63-89 0.414, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 3/11 Miss
63% San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.414 (away 63-89) vs home 75-77 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 10/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
