San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 5:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Francisco Giants 38%
St. Louis Cardinals 62%
Locked before start
Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 53% Miss Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Showing 3 of 59 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.490 (home 75-78) vs away 64-89 0.418, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
AM Anthony Molina Appearance confirmed
ML Matthew Liberatore Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 91°F· wind 4 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.242 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.257, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.255
+1.6%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 91°F 4 mph, In From RF St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) last 15G AVG 0.255 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.251 (343PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.242, underrated 13p) Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% San Francisco Giants away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants away -1.5· Run Line batter49 JW JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.242 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.257, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
63% Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.490 (home 75-78) vs away 64-89 0.418, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 22, matchup combination model
runs 5/7 Miss
62% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Francisco Giants Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.418 (away 64-89) vs home 75-78 0.490, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/6 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
