Seattle Mariners at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 53%
Athletics 47%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.470 (away 70-79) vs home 60-89 0.403, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Athletics
Pitching matchup
BW Bryan Woo Appearance confirmed
GJ Gage Jump Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 78°F· wind 12 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 78°F 12 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.339
+9.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 78°F 12 mph, Out To LF Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.339 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.269 (119PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.264, underrated 9p) Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
75% DC Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
74% Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.470 (away 70-79) vs home 60-89 0.403, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 19/2 Hit
53% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 4.5· Runs Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.403 (home 60-89) vs away 70-79 0.470, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 1/20 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
