Seattle Mariners at Athletics — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 8:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 52%
Athletics 48%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.467 (away 70-80) vs home 61-89 0.407, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Athletics
Pitching matchup
BM Bryce Miller Appearance confirmed
JL Jacob Lopez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 75°F· wind 7 mph, L To R· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 75°F 7 mph, L To R Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.339
+9.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 75°F 7 mph, L To R Athletics 12 OUT (J.T. Ginn …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.339 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.269 (119PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.264, underrated 9p) Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
73% DC Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Shea Langeliers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 1+· hits 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jeff McNeil Hits 1+· hits 1+ Henry Bolte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Shea Langeliers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Shea Langeliers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zack Gelof Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Lawrence Butler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jeff McNeil Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Henry Bolte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Henry Bolte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Lawrence Butler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Shea Langeliers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zack Gelof Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jeff McNeil Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zack Gelof Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jeff McNeil Walks 1+· walks 1+ Lawrence Butler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Henry Bolte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Shea Langeliers HR· HR 1+ Zack Gelof HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Lawrence Butler HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Henry Bolte HR· HR 1+ Jeff McNeil HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Athletics team runs Over 4.5· Runs Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.467 (away 70-80) vs home 61-89 0.407, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/9 Miss
52% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Athletics Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.407 (home 61-89) vs away 70-80 0.467, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 8/8 Hit
48% Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line Athletics home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Athletics home -1.5· Run Line strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
