Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 57%
Colorado Rockies 43%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (away 72-82) vs home 56-98 0.364, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
BW Bryan Woo Appearance confirmed
GH Gabriel Hughes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 74°F· wind 11 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.247 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.317
+8.4%p Statcast xBA
0.264 (actual 0.247)
+0.7%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 74°F 11 mph, In From LF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.317 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.259 (410PA) Statcast xBA 0.264 (actual 0.247, underrated 17p) Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 JR Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.247 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
72% Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.3 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 72-82) vs home 56-98 0.364, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/5 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.364 (home 56-98) vs away 72-82 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 4/6 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
