Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 56%
Colorado Rockies 44%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.465 (away 72-83) vs home 57-98 0.368, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
BM Bryce Miller Appearance confirmed
JQ Jose Quintana Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 74°F· wind 5 mph, R To L· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 74°F 5 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.339
+9.0%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 74°F 5 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.339 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.269 (119PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.264, underrated 9p) Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
73% DC Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Seattle Mariners team runs Over 4.5· Runs Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.465 (away 72-83) vs home 57-98 0.368, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.368 (home 57-98) vs away 72-83 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
