Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 57%
Colorado Rockies 43%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 57-99 0.365, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
KA Kade Anderson Appearance confirmed
TS Tomoyuki Sugano Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 71°F· wind 9 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-6.0%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 71°F 9 mph, In From CF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.319 (166PA) Statcast xBA 0.274 (actual 0.291, overrated 17p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.245 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.228 adjusted 0.237, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.217
-3.4%p Statcast xBA
0.228 (actual 0.245)
-0.7%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 71°F 9 mph, In From CF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.217 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.251 (167PA) Statcast xBA 0.228 (actual 0.245, overrated 17p) Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 JM Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.274 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% HG Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.245 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.228 adjusted 0.237, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 57-99 0.365, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/2 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.365 (home 57-99) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 1/3 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
