Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Seattle Mariners 55%
Los Angeles Angels 45%
Locked before start
Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Miss Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.464 (away 70-81) vs home 57-93 0.380, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
KA Kade Anderson Appearance confirmed
RD Reid Detmers Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 75°F· wind 4 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 75°F 4 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.320 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
71% Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.464 (away 70-81) vs home 57-93 0.380, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.380 (home 57-93) vs away 70-81 0.464, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
45% Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
