Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 54%
Los Angeles Angels 46%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.461 (away 70-82) vs home 58-93 0.384, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
LG Logan Gilbert Appearance confirmed
RJ Ryan Johnson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 75°F· wind 10 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Low
season 4.1runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 3.9 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +6pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 1/4 Miss
66% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.461 (away 70-82) vs home 58-93 0.384, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
54% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.384 (home 58-93) vs away 70-82 0.461, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
46% batter77 Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
