Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Seattle Mariners 54%
Los Angeles Angels 46%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.464 (away 71-82) vs home 58-94 0.382, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
GK George Kirby Appearance confirmed
YK Yusei Kikuchi Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 74°F· wind 8 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/15 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.362
+9.7%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 74°F 8 mph, Out To LF Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.362 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.306 (170PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.281, overrated 23p) BvP career 3/15 (.200, K 7·HR 2) → weight 7% Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.269 adjusted 0.269, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.226
-4.2%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 74°F 8 mph, Out To LF Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Seattle Mariners 13 OUT (Michael Toglia …) last 15G AVG 0.226 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.278 (209PA) Statcast xBA 0.269 (actual 0.261, underrated 8p) Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 RA Randy Arozarena Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.281 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/15 adjusted 0.304, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
69% JN Josh Naylor Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.269 adjusted 0.269, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
69% Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 1+· hits 1+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cole Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dominic Canzone RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dominic Canzone Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Naylor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Randy Arozarena RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Julio Rodríguez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cal Raleigh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Naylor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cole Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cole Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Randy Arozarena Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cal Raleigh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cole Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dominic Canzone Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Naylor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Julio Rodríguez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cal Raleigh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Julio Rodríguez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cole Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cole Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cal Raleigh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Dominic Canzone HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Randy Arozarena HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Cal Raleigh HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Julio Rodríguez HR· HR 1+ Cole Young HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Naylor HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Seattle Mariners away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Seattle Mariners away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line games6 Seattle Mariners team runs Over 3.5· Runs Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Seattle Mariners Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.464 (away 71-82) vs home 58-94 0.382, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/3 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.382 (home 58-94) vs away 71-82 0.464, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 2/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
