St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate St. Louis Cardinals 32%
Milwaukee Brewers 68%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.631 (home 101-59) vs away 77-83 0.481, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
MM Michael McGreevy Appearance confirmed
RG Robert Gasser Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 69°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.377
+13.1%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 69°F 0 mph, None Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) last 15G AVG 0.377 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (406PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.268, overrated 13p) Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
80% Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away -1.5· Run Line batter77 BT Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
72% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.631 (home 101-59) vs away 77-83 0.481, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 8/5 Hit
68% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 3.5· Runs St. Louis Cardinals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.481 (away 77-83) vs home 101-59 0.631, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/9 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
