St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate St. Louis Cardinals 31%
Milwaukee Brewers 69%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.634 (home 102-59) vs away 77-84 0.478, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
QM Quinn Mathews Appearance confirmed
DM Dustin May Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 70°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.314, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 70°F 0 mph, None Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.333 (153PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
80% Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away -1.5· Run Line batter77 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.314, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
73% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.634 (home 102-59) vs away 77-84 0.478, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 3/3 Hit
69% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 3.5· Runs St. Louis Cardinals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.478 (away 77-84) vs home 102-59 0.634, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/4 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
