St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate St. Louis Cardinals 31%
Milwaukee Brewers 69%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.636 (home 103-59) vs away 77-85 0.475, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching matchup
AP Andre Pallante Appearance confirmed
JM Jacob Misiorowski Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 70°F· wind 5 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 106
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255· BvP 8/21 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.377
+13.1%p Park Runs 101 / HR 106 70°F 5 mph, L To R Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) last 15G AVG 0.377 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (406PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.268, overrated 13p) BvP career 8/21 (.381, K 3·HR 0) → weight 10% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
80% Milwaukee Brewers home -1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away -1.5· Run Line batter77 BT Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255· BvP 8/21 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.636 (home 103-59) vs away 77-85 0.475, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
69% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 3.5· Runs St. Louis Cardinals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.475 (away 77-85) vs home 103-59 0.636, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
