St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 4:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate St. Louis Cardinals 43%
Pittsburgh Pirates 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.509 (home 81-78) vs away 77-82 0.484, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
St. Louis Cardinals Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
KL Kyle Leahy Appearance confirmed
PS Paul Skenes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 61°F· wind 7 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.286
+3.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 61°F 7 mph, In From RF Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) last 15G AVG 0.286 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (391PA) Statcast xBA 0.240 (actual 0.261, overrated 21p) Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BL Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
73% Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% St. Louis Cardinals away +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals away -1.5· Run Line games6 Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.509 (home 81-78) vs away 77-82 0.484, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 2/2 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.484 (away 77-82) vs home 81-78 0.509, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/3 Miss
43% St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
