Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — Game center Scheduled MLB
VS
Oct 8 (Thu) · 12:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Tampa Bay Rays 95%
New York Yankees 5%
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Pregame home win ESPN 64% · Spolytics 5% −58.8%p External figure: ESPN Matchup Predictor. Retrieved 2026-10-07T08:50:07.287Z; forecast publication time unavailable. Shown for reference; not an input to our model.
Head to head Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
NM Nick Martinez Probable · subject to change
MF Max Fried Probable · subject to change
Recent form · newest first
park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 4/9 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 102 / HR 112 New York Yankees 4 OUT (Aaron Judge …) Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) BvP career 4/9 (.444, K 1·HR 0) → weight 4% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
96% Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line games6 Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-2) vs away 2-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 4 / away 6, matchup combination model
5% batter84 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 4/9 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
68% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
