Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 11:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Tampa Bay Rays 50%
New York Yankees 50%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Showing 3 of 85 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.576 (home 91-67) vs away 96-62 0.608, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
ME Mason Englert Appearance confirmed
GC Gerrit Cole Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 64°F· wind 13 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
66% Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
65% New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.576 (home 91-67) vs away 96-62 0.608, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 9/3 Hit
50% Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.608 (away 96-62) vs home 91-67 0.576, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/10 Miss
50% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
