Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 11:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tampa Bay Rays 48%
New York Yankees 52%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.579 (home 92-67) vs away 96-63 0.604, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
IS Ian Seymour Appearance confirmed
CS Cam Schlittler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 64°F· wind 13 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
64% New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.579 (home 92-67) vs away 96-63 0.604, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
52% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.604 (away 96-63) vs home 92-67 0.579, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
48% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
