Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tampa Bay Rays 51%
Philadelphia Phillies 49%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.606 (away 97-63) vs home 87-73 0.544, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Tampa Bay Rays Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup
FP Freddy Peralta Appearance confirmed
CS Cristopher Sánchez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 71°F· wind 17 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 103· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273· BvP 2/9 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-4.2%p Park Runs 103 / HR 110 71°F 17 mph, In From CF Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) Tampa Bay Rays 8 OUT (Tyler Wells …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.287 (157PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.276, overrated 3p) BvP career 2/9 (.222, K 2·HR 0) → weight 4% Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 JC Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273· BvP 2/9 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Philadelphia Phillies home +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.606 (away 97-63) vs home 87-73 0.544, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/1 Hit
51% Philadelphia Phillies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.544 (home 87-73) vs away 97-63 0.606, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 0/3 Miss
49% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
