Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tampa Bay Rays 52%
Philadelphia Phillies 48%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.609 (away 98-63) vs home 87-74 0.540, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Tampa Bay Rays Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup
GJ Griffin Jax Appearance confirmed
AN Aaron Nola Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Drizzle 62°F· wind 14 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 103· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.264, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.241
-4.2%p Park Runs 103 / HR 110 62°F 14 mph, In From CF Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) Tampa Bay Rays 8 OUT (Tyler Wells …) last 15G AVG 0.241 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.272 (459PA) Statcast xBA 0.273 (actual 0.276, overrated 3p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.180
-13.6%p Park Runs 103 / HR 110 62°F 14 mph, In From CF Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) Tampa Bay Rays 8 OUT (Tyler Wells …) last 15G AVG 0.180 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.305 (436PA) Statcast xBA 0.281 (actual 0.293, overrated 12p) Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 JC Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.264, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
72% YD Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.293 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.273, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
69% Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.609 (away 98-63) vs home 87-74 0.540, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 12/2 Hit
52% Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.540 (home 87-74) vs away 98-63 0.609, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 1/13 Miss
48% Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies home +1.5· Run Line Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies home -1.5· Run Line strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
