Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 6:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Tampa Bay Rays 51%
Philadelphia Phillies 49%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.605 (away 98-64) vs home 88-74 0.543, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Tampa Bay Rays Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup
NM Nick Martinez Appearance confirmed
ZW Zack Wheeler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 65°F· wind 19 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 103· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Philadelphia Phillies home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
65% Tampa Bay Rays away -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies home -1.5· Run Line batter84 Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Tampa Bay Rays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.605 (away 98-64) vs home 88-74 0.543, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
51% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.543 (home 88-74) vs away 98-64 0.605, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
49% Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
