Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas Rangers 42%
Arizona Diamondbacks 58%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.527 (home 79-71) vs away 74-76 0.493, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Texas Rangers Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
CQ Cal Quantrill Appearance confirmed
ER Eduardo Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 77°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.418
+19.6%p Statcast xBA
0.231 (actual 0.255)
-1.0%p Park Runs 102 / HR 103 77°F 0 mph, None Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) last 15G AVG 0.418 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.249 (393PA) Statcast xBA 0.231 (actual 0.255, overrated 24p) Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
72% Texas Rangers away +1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NA Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.278, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
67% Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.527 (home 79-71) vs away 74-76 0.493, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 6/8 Miss
58% Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.493 (away 74-76) vs home 79-71 0.527, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/7 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
