Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas Rangers 48%
Minnesota Twins 52%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.475 (home 76-84) vs away 79-81 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
JD Jacob deGrom Appearance confirmed
JR Joe Ryan Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 68°F· wind 9 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.233 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.310
+6.8%p Statcast xBA
0.233 (actual 0.253)
-0.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 68°F 9 mph, In From RF Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) last 15G AVG 0.310 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.272 (397PA) Statcast xBA 0.233 (actual 0.253, overrated 20p) Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Texas Rangers away +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers away -1.5· Run Line batter70 BL Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.233 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ games6 Minnesota Twins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.475 (home 76-84) vs away 79-81 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 10/3 Hit
52% Texas Rangers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.494 (away 79-81) vs home 76-84 0.475, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/11 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
