Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas Rangers 48%
Minnesota Twins 52%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 80-81 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
NE Nathan Eovaldi Appearance confirmed
BO Bailey Ober Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Drizzle 62°F· wind 10 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.233 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.310
+6.8%p Statcast xBA
0.233 (actual 0.253)
-0.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 62°F 10 mph, In From CF Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) last 15G AVG 0.310 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.272 (397PA) Statcast xBA 0.233 (actual 0.253, overrated 20p) Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter70 BL Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.253 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.233 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
68% Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Texas Rangers away +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers away -1.5· Run Line games6 Minnesota Twins team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 80-81 0.497, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 2/7 Miss
52% Texas Rangers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.497 (away 80-81) vs home 76-85 0.472, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/3 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
