Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Texas Rangers 48%
Minnesota Twins 52%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.475 (home 77-85) vs away 80-82 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
MG MacKenzie Gore Appearance confirmed
DK Dean Kremer Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 65°F· wind 3 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.256 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.263
+1.0%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 65°F 3 mph, In From LF Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) last 15G AVG 0.263 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.273 (194PA) Statcast xBA 0.256 (actual 0.255, underrated 1p) Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Texas Rangers away +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers away -1.5· Run Line batter70 JB Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.255 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.256 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ games6 Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.475 (home 77-85) vs away 80-82 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
52% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.494 (away 80-82) vs home 77-85 0.475, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
