Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles — Game center Final MLB
Sep 21 (Mon) · 10:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Toronto Blue Jays 47%
Baltimore Orioles 53%
Locked before start
Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Showing 3 of 86 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.484 (home 76-81) vs away 77-80 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles
Pitching matchup
TY Trey Yesavage Appearance confirmed
SB Shane Baz Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 65°F· wind 3 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 99· HR 97
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/11 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.318
+4.9%p Park Runs 99 / HR 97 65°F 3 mph, In From RF Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) last 15G AVG 0.318 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (333PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.277, overrated 19p) BvP career 3/11 (.273, K 1·HR 0) → weight 5% Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Baltimore Orioles home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.5 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Toronto Blue Jays away +1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles home -1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NL Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258· BvP 3/11 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
64% Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ games6 Baltimore Orioles Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.484 (home 76-81) vs away 77-80 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
53% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.490 (away 77-80) vs home 76-81 0.484, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
47% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
