Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Toronto Blue Jays 45%
Texas Rangers 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 77-77) vs away 76-78 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
DC Dylan Cease Appearance confirmed
KR Kumar Rocker Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.318
+4.9%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) last 15G AVG 0.318 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (333PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.277, overrated 19p) Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Toronto Blue Jays away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NL Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.500 (home 77-77) vs away 76-78 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 7/2 Hit
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (away 76-78) vs home 77-77 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/8 Miss
45% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
