Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Toronto Blue Jays 46%
Texas Rangers 54%
Locked before start
Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Miss Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Hit Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.503 (home 78-77) vs away 76-79 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
JS José Soriano Appearance confirmed
CQ Cal Quantrill Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.318
+4.9%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) last 15G AVG 0.318 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (333PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.277, overrated 19p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
+0.4%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.226 (420PA) Statcast xBA 0.224 (actual 0.232, overrated 8p) Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 NL Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% KO Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.224 adjusted 0.225, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
69% Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays away -1.5· Run Line games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.503 (home 78-77) vs away 76-79 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 6/3 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.490 (away 76-79) vs home 78-77 0.503, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/7 Miss
46% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
