Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Toronto Blue Jays 45%
Texas Rangers 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 78-78) vs away 77-79 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
SM Spencer Miles Appearance confirmed
JD Jacob deGrom Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.318
+4.9%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) Toronto Blue Jays 13 OUT (Dylan Cease …) last 15G AVG 0.318 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (333PA) Statcast xBA 0.258 (actual 0.277, overrated 19p) Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Toronto Blue Jays away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line Toronto Blue Jays away -1.5· Run Line batter77 NL Nathan Lukes Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.277 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.258 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
66% Kazuma Okamoto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ernie Clement Hits 1+· hits 1+ George Springer Hits 1+· hits 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kazuma Okamoto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kazuma Okamoto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ernie Clement Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer RBI 1+· RBI 1+ George Springer 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ George Springer Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Lukes 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Andrés Giménez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Andrés Giménez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ernie Clement RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Lukes Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kazuma Okamoto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Andrés Giménez Hits 2+· hits 2+ George Springer Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Lukes Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kazuma Okamoto HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ernie Clement Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ George Springer HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Nathan Lukes HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Andrés Giménez HR· HR 1+ Ernie Clement HR· HR 1+ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ games6 Toronto Blue Jays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.500 (home 78-78) vs away 77-79 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 13, matchup combination model
runs 2/8 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Toronto Blue Jays Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (away 77-79) vs home 78-78 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/3 Hit
45% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
