Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 21 (Mon) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Washington Nationals 46%
Detroit Tigers 54%
Locked before start
Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ 49% Hit Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 56% Hit Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Showing 3 of 85 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.471 (home 74-83) vs away 73-84 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Washington Nationals Detroit Tigers
Pitching matchup
DH DJ Herz Appearance confirmed
RR River Ryan Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 60°F· wind 11 mph, L To R· park factor runs 98· HR 94
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.262 adjusted 0.260, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.316
+4.3%p Park Runs 98 / HR 94 60°F 11 mph, L To R Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.316 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.250 (156PA) Statcast xBA 0.262 (actual 0.280, overrated 18p) James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Detroit Tigers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.3 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Washington Nationals away +1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers home -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away -1.5· Run Line batter77 RG Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.262 adjusted 0.260, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
62% James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ games6 Detroit Tigers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.471 (home 74-83) vs away 73-84 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 9/3 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Detroit Tigers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Washington Nationals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.465 (away 73-84) vs home 74-83 0.471, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/10 Miss
46% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
