Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Washington Nationals 44%
St. Louis Cardinals 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.487 (home 75-79) vs away 72-82 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
CC Cade Cavalli Appearance confirmed
KL Kyle Leahy Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 89°F· wind 2 mph, R To L· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247 adjusted 0.261, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.246
-1.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 89°F 2 mph, R To L St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.246 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.271 (387PA) Statcast xBA 0.247 (actual 0.261, overrated 14p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.231
-5.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 89°F 2 mph, R To L St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.231 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.311 (412PA) Statcast xBA 0.289 (actual 0.279, underrated 10p) Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 CA CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247 adjusted 0.261, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% AB Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
71% Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away -1.5· Run Line games6 St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.487 (home 75-79) vs away 72-82 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 1/10 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 72-82) vs home 75-79 0.487, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/2 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
