Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Washington Nationals 42%
St. Louis Cardinals 58%
Locked before start
CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70% Miss James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.484 (home 75-80) vs away 73-82 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
AA Andrew Alvarez Appearance confirmed
MM Michael McGreevy Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 95°F· wind 5 mph, R To L· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.222, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.231
-5.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 95°F 5 mph, R To L St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.231 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.212 (193PA) Statcast xBA 0.289 (actual 0.279, underrated 10p) Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 AB Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289 adjusted 0.222, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
73% Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.6 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Washington Nationals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away -1.5· Run Line games6 Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.484 (home 75-80) vs away 73-82 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 5/9 Miss
58% St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.471 (away 73-82) vs home 75-80 0.484, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/6 Hit
42% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
