Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 6:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Washington Nationals 44%
St. Louis Cardinals 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.487 (home 76-80) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup
JI Jake Irvin Appearance confirmed
QM Quinn Mathews Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 81°F· wind 1 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 97· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.302, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.231
-5.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 81°F 1 mph, Out To LF St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.231 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.311 (412PA) Statcast xBA 0.289 (actual 0.279, underrated 10p) BvP career 3/9 (.333, K 2·HR 1) → weight 4% Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.269 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.235, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.137
-15.8%p Park Runs 97 / HR 92 81°F 1 mph, Out To LF St. Louis Cardinals 6 OUT (Hunter Dobbins …) Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) last 15G AVG 0.137 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.267 (454PA) Statcast xBA 0.263 (actual 0.269, overrated 6p) JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 AB Alec Burleson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.289· BvP 3/9 adjusted 0.302, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
73% JW Jordan Walker Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.269 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.263 adjusted 0.235, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% JJ Wetherholt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nathan Church Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Burleson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Burleson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Burleson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jordan Walker RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Iván Herrera Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Walks 1+· walks 1+ JJ Wetherholt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nathan Church RBI 1+· RBI 1+ JJ Wetherholt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Iván Herrera RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ JJ Wetherholt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Burleson Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Iván Herrera Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jordan Walker Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jordan Walker Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nathan Church Hits 2+· hits 2+ JJ Wetherholt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Iván Herrera Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nathan Church Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jordan Walker HR· HR 1+ Alec Burleson HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ JJ Wetherholt HR· HR 1+ Iván Herrera HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Nathan Church HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 St. Louis Cardinals home +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away +1.5· Run Line St. Louis Cardinals home -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals away -1.5· Run Line games6 St. Louis Cardinals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals St. Louis Cardinals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.487 (home 76-80) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 76-80 0.487, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
44% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
