expected runs 2.06 vs 1.48 (home Points per game 1.69 / runs allowed 1.89) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Portland Timbers 37.8–64.2%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Atlanta United FC 15.3–38.7%
Portland Timbers leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.58 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
4
4
3
1
1
6
9
6
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
5
2
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
32%
Both teams score
68%
Portland Timbers clean sheet
23%
Atlanta United FC clean sheet
13%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
