expected runs 2.00 vs 1.09 (home Points per game 1.57 / runs allowed 1.56) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: FC Dallas 45–71%, Draw 11.9–34.1%, Austin FC 8.6–29.4%
FC Dallas leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.91 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
4
3
1
9
10
5
2
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
7
4
1
4
3
3
2
5
1
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Both teams score
58%
FC Dallas clean sheet
34%
Austin FC clean sheet
14%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
