expected runs 2.16 vs 1.55 (home Points per game 1.47 / runs allowed 1.89) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Toronto FC 37.8–64.2%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, CF Montréal 15.3–38.7%
Toronto FC leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.60 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
3
3
1
1
5
9
6
3
1
2
6
9
7
4
1
3
4
6
5
3
1
4
2
3
3
1
5
1
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
70%
Toronto FC clean sheet
21%
CF Montréal clean sheet
12%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
