expected runs 1.60 vs 1.35 (home Points per game 1.56 / runs allowed 1.62) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: D.C. United 29.9–56.1%, Draw 14.4–37.6%, Charlotte FC 18.8–43.2%
D.C. United leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.25 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 26% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
6
5
2
1
8
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
3
3
5
3
2
4
1
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams score
60%
D.C. United clean sheet
26%
Charlotte FC clean sheet
20%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
