expected runs 1.79 vs 0.73 (home Points per game 1.67 / runs allowed 0.78) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Nashville SC 54.2–69.8%, Draw 17.2–30.8%, Chicago Fire FC 8.4–19.6%
Nashville SC leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.06 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
5
2
1
14
11
4
2
13
9
3
3
8
6
2
4
3
3
5
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
44%
Nashville SC clean sheet
48%
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet
17%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
