Columbus Crew at CF Montréal — Game center Final MLS
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Columbus Crew 32%
Draw 24%
CF Montréal 44%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 87% Hit CF Montréal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 85% Miss Columbus Crew 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 81% Hit Showing 3 of 31 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.79 vs 1.62 (home Points per game 1.54 / runs allowed 2.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.79 - 1.62
+3.0%p vs league average
3.41 vs 3.22 goals
+1.1%p
Head to head Columbus Crew CF Montréal
Model expected goals
1.62 1.79
Data source: ESPN API
Prince Owusu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Daniel Ríos Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Wikelman Carmona Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Medium
combined expected goals 3.41 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
87% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 Team stats6 CF Montréal 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Medium
team expected goals 1.79 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 0/1 Miss
85% Columbus Crew 1+ goals· 1+ Goals CF Montréal 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Columbus Crew 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Columbus Crew clean sheet· Clean Sheet CF Montréal clean sheet· Clean Sheet games3 CF Montréal Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.79 vs 1.62 (home Points per game 1.54 / runs allowed 2.00) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 0/3 Miss
44% Columbus Crew Away Win· Away Win Medium
expected runs 1.62 vs 1.79 (away Points per game 1.49 / runs allowed 1.59)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/1 Hit
32% DR Draw draw· Draw Medium
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
24% Goalscorers20 Prince Owusu Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Prince Owusu 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Daniel Ríos Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Wikelman Carmona Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Wessam Abou Ali Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Daniel Ríos 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Wikelman Carmona 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Wessam Abou Ali 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Prince Owusu 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Matthew Longstaff Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matthew Longstaff 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Brais Méndez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Taha Habroune Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Brais Méndez 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Taha Habroune 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Mohamed Farsi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Mohamed Farsi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Daniel Ríos 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Wikelman Carmona 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Wessam Abou Ali 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
CF Montréal KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Columbus Crew Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: CF Montréal 28–54%, Draw 12.7–35.3%, Columbus Crew 21.5–46.5%
CF Montréal leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.17 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 24%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 5 4 2 1 6 10 8 4 2 2 5 9 7 4 2 3 3 5 4 2 4 1 2 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 66%
Under 2.5 goals 34%
Both teams score 68%
CF Montréal clean sheet 20%
Columbus Crew clean sheet 17% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
