expected runs 2.39 vs 1.55 (home Points per game 2.03 / runs allowed 1.85) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Inter Miami CF 42.9–69.1%, Draw 10.2–31.8%, D.C. United 11.9–34.1%
Inter Miami CF leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.85 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 21%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
3
2
1
1
4
8
5
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
7
5
3
1
4
3
4
3
2
5
1
2
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
25%
Both teams score
72%
Inter Miami CF clean sheet
21%
D.C. United clean sheet
9%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
